The Strait of Hormuz is still significantly blocked, inflation is broadening beyond energy, and central banks are rethinking their next move. And yet — the global economy is holding together better than almost anyone expected. Stock markets are looking chipper. Canada may be better positioned than it’s appeared in years. And AI is still very much in the spotlight — for better and for worse. Here’s what you need to know: The Strait of Hormuz: still closed — but for how much longer?: Markets put the odds of a significant resolution at around 70% by mid-year. But the ceasefire isn’t perfectly holding — and if a deal falls through, the pain could increase substantially. Is this a three-month shock or a five-month shock? And what happens to oil prices either way? Inflation is broadening — and central banks may be changing course: It’s no longer just energy prices. Inflation is starting to show up in food costs, transportation and fertilizer. With the economy staying resilient and inflation sticky, the rate-cutting era may be over. What does this mean for investment portfolios? AI is the real deal — but is the memory chip boom about to hit a wall?: Memory chip prices have surged 700% in roughly a year, and memory now accounts for more than half the cost of an AI chip. The big makers are posting extraordinary margins — but this has historically been a commoditized, cyclical business. Who wins and who loses? Has Canada’s moment arrived?: In a world where resource security is priority one, Canada may hold more cards than many investors realize. Business investment intentions have rebounded to their highest levels in over a year. We’re feeling fairly good about Canada over a multi-year horizon — find out why. China’s housing bust: is one green shoot enough?: Home prices have been falling for years, developers have failed and sales are down roughly by half. But tier-one cities just flashed a rare signal. Historically that’s been a leading indicator for the broader market. Could it mean China sustains 5% growth for longer than anyone expects? El Niño is back — and there’s a 50% chance it’s a big one: A super El Niño is now essentially a coin flip. The last one cost the global economy an estimated $3.9 trillion over five years. From rice and palm oil to copper and cocoa, the ripple effects across commodity markets could matter more than you think. The bottom line The global economy is holding up better than expected — and we’re actually slightly more optimistic than the consensus. The energy shock looks temporary. Risk assets are still in favour, even if valuations aren’t cheap. The next few months will be telling — particularly on the Hormuz deal, the inflation trajectory, and whether AI’s extraordinary run can sustain itself. All this and more in this month’s webcast recording.