Iran deal, resilient economy, choppy markets A tentative peace deal is reshaping energy markets. Inflation is still sticky but the global economy keeps surprising to the upside. Here's what investors need to know: The Strait of Hormuz: ships are moving again — but is this really over? Oil has fallen from over $120 a barrel to around $70 — significant progress. Tanker traffic is rebounding in both directions. But the deal between the U.S. and Iran still has details to resolve and skirmishes have continued. Financial markets may be pricing in a resolution that isn't quite locked in. What happens to inflation and growth if this deal unravels? Inflation is still too high — and the Fed is not backing down: Real-time inflation data is improving, but energy flows haven't fully normalized and price pressures haven't disappeared. The Federal Reserve's new chair Kevin Warsh sent a warning that interest rates could go higher. Is the rate-cutting era really over? AI is still driving the economy — but the consumer matters more: Hyperscaler capital spending is growing so fast it's adding an estimated half to three-quarters of a percentage point to U.S. GDP growth. That's extraordinary. But the U.S. consumer is still the bigger engine. Both are holding up better than expected. The Magnificent Seven are losing the lead — is that bad news? The gap between the biggest tech stocks and the rest of the market is narrowing. Smaller and mid-cap companies are starting to outperform. Is this a warning sign — or the beginning of a healthy, broader market rally? Valuations are stretched — but earnings keep rising: Major stock markets are expensive by historical measures, with the S&P 500 sitting roughly 59% above its historically normal valuation. The saving grace? Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised upward. The RBC GAM Macro Barometer is reading strongly positive overall — and the RBC GAM investment team remains slightly overweight equities. Canada: not a recession — and the data is improving: Two consecutive quarters of slight GDP decline had some observers worried. But two of three methods of measuring Canadian GDP were actually positive in Q1 2026, and the labour market has held together. The bottom line The global economy is proving more resilient than most expected. The energy shock looks like it's easing. Earnings momentum is keeping valuations in check. And a broadening stock market could signal a new leg of growth, even as the biggest names take a breather. The next few months will be telling — particularly on the Iran deal, the U.S. Fed's next move, and whether the AI-driven CapEx boom has more room to run. All this and more in this month's webcast recording. *Captions have been automatically generated.