Running the gauntlet: AI concerns / oil shock / tariffs The economy shows resilience despite new headwinds. AI valuations face fresh scrutiny while energy markets remain volatile. Here's what investors need to know: Iran war continues to disrupt energy flows — is stability achievable? Despite temporary ceasefires, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Oil has swung from $120 to $70 per barrel and back up again. The conflict shows no signs of neat resolution, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation stubbornly high. The Fed signals more hawkish moves ahead: With economic strength persisting and inflation above target, Federal Reserve officials are dropping hawkish hints. Rate hikes appear more likely than cuts in coming months. What will happen next as growth holds up better than expected? AI's trillion-dollar question — can the spending pay off? Hyperscalers could spend nearly $1 trillion next year on AI infrastructure, adding significantly to GDP growth. But free cash flows are deteriorating as companies borrow to fund massive data centre investments. Which AI models will prove to be profitable? Memory chip costs surge 700-800% — sustainability concerns grow: Korean memory chipmakers have soared on massive cost increases, but cyclical margins tend to worry investors. Data centres face local opposition over electricity costs, potentially complicating AI buildouts. How solid are AI valuations, despite quality improvements? New tariff threats target Canada: While U.S. tariff rates remain below winter peaks, targeted 50% tariffs on 5% of Canadian exports threaten key industries. What will happen to Canadian growth as trade tensions continue? Mid-term elections could shift economic dynamics: What if the U.S. election leads to a divided Congress? We explore the impact on fiscal stimulus, stock markets and specific industries including AI and pharmaceuticals. Bank lending accelerates — a positive macro signal: Both European and U.S. bank lending growth is picking up, suggesting confidence from both borrowers and lenders. What’s the likely impact on money supply, economic activity and business optimism? The bottom line: The global economy has proven more resilient than expected. AI productivity gains are supporting growth even as valuations face scrutiny. Energy shocks persist but haven't derailed expansion. The next few months will test whether AI investments can justify their costs, energy markets can stabilize and trade tensions can ease. All this and more in this month's webcast recording.