Eric Lascelles discusses some of the forces shaping the global economy right now: the ripple effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on energy prices and inflation, where U.S. tariffs and USMCA renegotiations stand today, and what artificial intelligence really means for long-term productivity and your investments. He also flags an emerging wildcard, a potential super El Niño, and what it could mean for agricultural prices and global growth.